Fed cuts rates to record low
December 17, 2008
Fed cuts rates to record low
WASHINGTON (Reuters) - The U.S. Federal Reserve on Tuesday broke into uncharted territory as it chopped benchmark interest rates to as low as zero and pledged to use “all available tools” to turn back a deepening recession.
Dismay at collapse of trade talks
July 31, 2008
International trade negotiators have expressed their disappointment at the failure of the latest talks in Geneva aimed at liberalising global trade.
China said the collapse was a serious setback for the world economy, while the EU described it as “heartbreaking”.
The negotiations foundered because the United States could not agree with China and India on import rules.
But the World Trade Organization chief, Pascal Lamy, said he would not abandon his efforts to find an agreement.
The main stumbling block was farm import rules, which allow countries to protect poor farmers by imposing a tariff on certain goods in the event of a drop in prices or a surge in imports.
India, China and the US could not agree on the tariff threshold for such an event.
Washington said that the “safeguard clause” protecting developing nations from unrestricted imports had been set too low.
Recriminations
China said it blamed the “selfish and short-sighted behaviour” of wealthy nations for the failure of the trade talks.
It said that the talks collapsed ultimately because the US and EU were unwilling to scrap the huge subsidies they pay their farmers.
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Japan, meanwhile, was critical of China and India’s stance.
“Compared with seven years ago when the Doha round started, the economic weight of China and India has been increasing. At the same time they need to take more responsibility,” said Nobutaka Machimura, Japan’s chief cabinet secretary.
“I wonder if they were thinking about the world economy as a whole while pursuing their own national interests.”
Damage limitation
Ministers had struggled for more than a week to reach a consensus on a trade pact, with talks finally breaking down on Tuesday.
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 It’s too early to say but the bottom line is we can’t give up - we have too much at stake 
India’s envoy, Ujal Singh Bhatia
The end of Doha dreams
Q&A: Crunch trade talks
In quotes: Trade talks collapse
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The “Doha Round” was launched in 2001 with the aim of lifting millions out of poverty. But Mr Lamy said “members have simply not been able to bridge their differences”.
He said: “We will need to let the dust settle a bit… WTO members will need to have a sober look at if and how they bring the pieces back together.”
EU Trade Commissioner Peter Mandelson described the result as a “collective failure”.
He said that it was now necessary to “make sure the damage is contained”, and to work “as hard as possible to restore that confidence” in the WTO.
US trade representative Susan Schwab said the US would “stand by our current offers” and that it hoped to return to a negotiations where there was “more ambition on the table”.
India’s envoy to the talks, Ujal Singh Bhatia, said the “bottom line is we can’t give up”, while China said WTO members should “learn a lesson” from the failure.
Brazil’s Foreign Minister Celso Amorim insisted that the negotiations were not dead.
“We have a good package, a package that would be positive for world trade,” he said.
Complications
Over the years, the talks have repeatedly collapsed as developed countries failed to agree with developing nations on terms of access to each others’ markets.
Meanwhile, developing countries want greater access for their agricultural products in Europe and the US.
Analysts have said that the collapse of the Doha talks could symbolise an end to multilateral trade agreements.
Instead, nations may pursue dual agreements with partner nations, preferring to focus on their own requirements rather than a more common negotiating goal.
The talks in Geneva were complicated by recent increases in the price of food and fuel.
Higher prices have prompted protests in both developed and developing nations, making it harder for negotiators to reach a compromise on opening up their markets to greater competition, analysts said.
What is your reaction to the collapse of the trade talks? Where do the negotiators go from here? Send us your comments using the form below.
Your comments:
Agriculture has been the oldest vocation in all countries since the Neolithic revolution. It is still the centre of gravity of livelihoods, culture, social values, and politics in many [developing] countries. You need a fair deal if you are to maintain the delicate socioeconomic equilibrium in your country.
Wijitapura Wimalaratana, Colombo, Sri Lanka
When it comes to security of food supplies we should remember that it is always the poorest countries that suffer most when there is volatility in the market. The benefits of free trade come with a heavy penalty of volatility. If we are really to take that great step forward to “globalisation” we need an agreement, a mechanism that supports ALL farmers everywhere in the world, and allows the poorest small-holder in the poorest nation a guaranteed income if he produces food for us all to eat.
John White, Deal UK
My view as a citizen of a developing country in Africa is that the collapse will not only affect the socioeconomics of developing countries but also destabilise international security in both developed and developing countries.
Leonard Kopela, South Africa
What we are seeing is typical separatism. In order to get what we want, the other guy has to lose. We are all ONE species no matter what country we live in, why do we spend billions on weapons, and space exploration but we can’t feed all of the people living on this lovely little planet? Our priority must be humanity.
Tony Walton, Australia
It is an excellent exercise in self-determination for developing countries. They are sending a clear message to developed countries that their markets are not to be sold off as auction items! It is a breakthrough, not a collapse!
Olave Basabose, Delft, Netherlands
There is no way that the US and certain EU countries will abandon farm subsidies. It would be political suicide. Farmers enjoy political clout that far outweighs their actual numbers and economic importance.
Joe Ryan, Nogent, France
Fear, greed and the narrow vision of special interests once again rule. If these folks can’t see the huge opportunity for a unity of purpose in sharing resources, it’s tragic. Seems we need some new negotiators.
Scott Washburn, Seattle USA
Watching the reports about the talks at the WTO conference, it looked positive and things sounded positive. There were many compromises from both developed and developing nations. Many countries were going to benefit. They must not just give up now. They must find a new format for discussions and agreement.
Godha, Limassol, Cyprus
I am a believer that the WTO is an organisation that is designed not to liberalise international trade but a means to colonise the poorest nations in a modern way. How could the US and EU tell us that it is a better deal for the world’s poorest people when Africa is not even represented in the talk? This is really the better outcome for the world’s poorest countries than the proposed failed deal.
Alef, Ethiopia
Populous developing countries like India and China have good reason to protect their farm product market. No one can help them if food crises occurs in these countries.
Guo, Beijing
It is most disheartening to note that the one truly global debate for development has been lost. I see this as the end of hope for development as an ideology, sacrificed at the altar of globalisation. The future looks very bleak indeed for farmers, for agriculture and food security.
Bhargavi Nagaraja, Bangalore, India
Credit crunch ’still worsening’
July 29, 2008
The global credit crunch shows no signs of abating, according to the International Monetary Fund (IMF).
In its latest global financial stability report, the IMF says that falling house prices and slowing economic growth are hitting credit.
It warns that banks are under renewed stress, and further cutbacks in bank lending could deepen the slowdown.
The IMF also says that emerging markets like China may also suffer more pain in the future from the credit crunch.
There were further signs of the problems facing many economies with news that the White House is expected to raise its forecast for the US budget deficit in 2009 to a record $490bn (£246bn).
The US government is spending large amounts on stimulus packages to limit the severity of the economic downturn, but that extra spending will have to be largely funded by borrowing.
The deficit is also likely to increase as companies hit by the credit crunch and cash-strapped individuals pay less in taxes.
Gloomy reading
The IMF’s report makes for gloomy reading nearly one year after global financial markets froze in August 2007.
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Global financial markets continue to be fragile and indicators of systemic risk remain elevated IMF Global Financial Stability Report
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In April, the IMF said that banks and other financial institutions could lose $1 trillion (£503bn) from the credit crisis as mortgage-backed assets lost most of their value - and it is still sticking to that estimate.
The current report says that that the banks have now acknowledged these risks and written off nearly $500bn worth of assets.
But it points out that they have only been able to raise new capital to cover about two-thirds of those losses, so the likelihood is that they will have to restrict their lending further.
The IMF warns that “as banks seek to deleverage and economise on capital, assets are being sold and lending conditions tightened, resulting in slower credit growth in the US and the euro area.”
In the US, private sector borrowing has dropped to the lowest level since the 2001 recession.
And there is now less scope for central banks to cut interest rates to boost economic growth because of the higher risk of inflation.
The IMF also warns that credit risks in the US are spreading from sub-prime lending to other types of mortgages and to all other major credit categories, such as car loans and credit card loans.
Overall, “global financial markets continue to be fragile and indicators of systemic risk remain elevated.”
Fannie Mae rescue
The IMF is particularly worried about the crisis that has engulfed the US government-sponsored mortgage lenders Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac, which fund half of all US mortgages.
Fears about their under-capitalisation caused their share prices to collapse, and forced the US Treasury to agree to a government guarantee which has just been approved by the US Congress.
This could cost upwards of $100bn, and the IMF says that “the challenge is now to find a clear and permanent solution while continuing to support US mortgage securitization.”
The former US Treasury Secretary Larry Summers argues that ultimately the only solution is for the US government to temporarily renationalise the two institutions, bankrupting the shareholders but generating more cash to disperse to people facing foreclosure.
However, that solution would increase the US national debt by 50%, from $9 trillion to $15 trillion, something financial markets might not find easy to swallow.
The increase would actually be larger because $4 trillion of that debt is actually the surpluses on the social security and Medicare trust funds that are required by law to be held in US government securities.
Emerging markets
The IMF also warns that the “resilience of emerging markets to the global turmoil is being tested” by a combination of inflationary pressures, currency readjustments, and a slowing world economy.
While China and India are both projected to grow much faster than the old industrial countries, they are both raising interest rates to cope with rising inflation and their exports are being hit by a rising currency.
China is also the largest single holder of bonds issues by Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac, and has seen their value drop sharply as the crisis deepens.
And the banking systems in both India and China are coming under renewed strain, while their nascent stock markets have suffered significant volatility, with China’s main Shanghai index falling by 50% since the beginning of the year.
Future growth
Two weeks ago, the IMF raised its forecast for world economic growth in 2008 to 4.1%, but warned that the US would be growing by just 1.3%.
However, the IMF’s latest reports suggests that the slowdown will be more prolonged into 2009 than previously thought, especially if emerging market country growth slows down.
And the IMF has again warned that the “policy trade-offs between inflation, growth and financial stability are becoming increasingly difficult.”
Such problems are evident in the three-way split among members of the Bank of England’s monetary policy committee over the future direction of interest rates, as well as in the decision of the European Central Bank to raise rates this month.
Source: bbc.co.uk/
Pensioners ’see higher cost rise’
July 6, 2008
The cost of living for pensioners has outstripped inflation over the past 10 years, a study suggests.
Pensioners have seen the cost of the goods and services they use rise by 36% in the past decade, said life insurer Clerical Medical.
However retail price inflation has risen by 32% in this time, it added.
The rising cost of housing, council tax and maintaining property were the biggest reasons, the study said, along with alcohol and tobacco.
Only footwear and clothing is cheaper than it was in 1998, the report added.
“The cost of living for pensioners has increased by more than that for all households during the period, particularly in the last five years,” said Martin Ellis, chief economist at Clerical Medical.
“The average cost of living facing pensioners has risen by more than one third over the past decade.”
Credit payments
The government said that it wanted to do more to help pensioners with food and fuel bills.
A spokesman for the Department for Work and Pensions said: “That’s why we’re spending £575m increasing winter fuel payments this winter, working with energy companies to lower pensioners’ fuel bills, and making it simpler for pensioners to claim all the help they’re entitled to.
“Average net incomes for pensioners, after they’ve paid housing costs, have increased by 43% since 1997. Most pensioners own their own home and don’t have mortgage costs.”
They added that pension credit, which increases in line with average earnings, meant that no pensioner needed to live on less than £124 per week, compared with £69 in 1997.
Earlier this week the Joseph Rowntree Foundation said a pensioner couple needed £201 per week excluding housing and childcare costs.
Source: BBC News (Internet)
Firms ‘feel worst’ for 16 years
July 2, 2008
UK business confidence has fallen to its lowest level since 1992 in June, according to BDO Stoy Hayward.
Its Business Trends Report showed confidence about the next three months fell to 97.7 in June from 98.3 in May.
It is the lowest figure since Black Wednesday, when the pound was removed from the Exchange Rate Mechanism.
The report comes as consumer confidence levels were seen to be near record lows, buffered by falling house prices, a slowing economy and a credit crunch.
BDO said that the low business confidence figures would suggest that companies were expecting annualised economic growth of 1.3% in the next three months.
That would be less than the chancellor’s forecast of between 1.75% and 2.25% for 2008.
“UK businesses are struggling to see any light at the end of the tunnel,” said Peter Hemington from BDO Stoy Hayward.
“An interest rate rise next week aimed at curbing inflation could be crippling for business and could worsen the effects of the economic slowdown,” he warned.
Source: BBC News (Internet)
US rates expected to stay at 2%
June 25, 2008
US interest rates are expected to remain at 2% amid further signs of problems in the housing market and falling consumer confidence.
Analysts suggest the Federal Reserve faces a difficult balancing act as it tries to cope with rising prices and a slowing economy.
US consumer confidence is reportedly at its lowest level in 16 years.
Meanwhile, a survey suggested house prices were substantially lower in April compared with a year earlier.
Higher oil prices, high commodity prices and higher fuel prices are causing an inflation headache for the Central Bank, according to the BBC’s Michelle Fleury in New York.
Analysts suggest the next move in rates could be upwards in an attempt to tackle inflation.
But that could worsen the economic slowdown caused by crises in the credit and housing markets, economists suggest.
It is a situation that the head of the IMF recently described as being caught between “fire and ice”.
Although no change in rates is expected on Wednesday, investors will watch closely for any accompanying statements from the Fed for an indication of what its future interest rate policy might be, our correspondent says.
Housing slump
In the housing market, property prices fell by their fastest rate since 2000, according to the Case-Schiller home price index released on Tuesday.
Prices in the 20 cities it monitors were 15.3% lower in April compared to the year before.
The narrower 10-city index was 16.3% down, its biggest decline in its more than two-decade history.
Las Vegas and Miami experienced falls of more than 25%, while the declines in Denver, Chicago and Cleveland were less severe than in the previous month.
Economic gloom
The latest reading of US consumer sentiment also showed a worsening situation.
Higher food and fuel prices and fears over the economy, jobs and wages mean that US consumers’ expectations for the next six months are at an all-time low, according to the Conference Board which polls 5000 households monthly.
The percentage of consumers expecting business conditions to get worse over the next six months jumped to 33.9% in June from 32.9% the previous month.
And the percentage of those expecting fewer jobs to be created in the months ahead rose to 35.5% from 32.3%.
“They feel purchasing power is diminishing. They’ve got rising gas and food prices and they don’t feel wages are keeping pace with it and that is really taking a bite out of consumer confidence,” Lynn Franco from the Conference Board told BBC News.
Darling calls for pay restraint
June 22, 2008
Chancellor Alistair Darling says pay rises for people “from the boardroom to the shopfloor” need to be “consistent” with the 2% inflation target.
He told BBC One’s Andrew Marr show the need to keep inflation under control “applies to each and every one of us”.
He said above-inflation pay increases would be “extremely damaging”.
Mr Darling said the UK economy was “far better equipped” than in the 1970s, 1980s and 1990s, but “despite that we are in for a tough time”.
The government’s preferred inflation measure, the Consumer Prices Index rose, to 3.3% in May, with the Bank of England warning it may reach 4%.
The wider Retail Prices Index measure of inflation - the one used for many pay negotiations - is already at 4.3%.
Asked if people should accept their living standards were going to fall this year - as they get pay rises below the level of inflation - Mr Darling said that everyone “had a vested interest” in not allowing inflation to take hold.
He said: “We’ve got to make sure that we keep inflation under control because if we don’t what will happen is that people may get a pay increase but every penny of it will be eaten up by rising prices in the shops.
“Now none of us want to see that happen, it’s in no-one’s interest and that applies from the top to the bottom, public and private sector alike.”
The chancellor was speaking as BPIX opinion poll for the Mail on Sunday suggested Labour was trailing the Conservative Party by 49% to 26% -with the Lib Dems on 14%.
The poll - which saw 2,385 people questioned online between 18 and 20 June - comes ahead of Gordon Brown’s first anniversary as prime minister, on Friday.
Asked about Mr Brown’s position, Mr Darling told the programme: “I have always taken the view that we can turn this round.
“We have had a difficult year, whether it’s the economy or other political issues as well, but I believe we are doing the right thing.”
Source: BBC News (Internet)
Economy is slowing, says Darling
June 18, 2008
Chancellor Alistair Darling has said that there is “no doubt” the UK economy is slowing and has warned it will be a “difficult year” ahead.
Rising food and fuel prices were hitting consumers, he told the BBC.
Speaking a day after consumer inflation jumped to the highest level in 10 years, he also called for restraint in pay demands.
Mr Darling said it would be “disastrous” if the UK “allowed inflation to take hold”.
“There is no doubt our economy is slowing down,” he told the BBC’s Today programme.
The government has predicted that the UK economy will grow by between 1.75% and 2.25% this year.
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The chancellor has forecast that the economy will grow by between 2.5% and 3% next year.
However, economists are predicting the rate of growth will be closer to 1.3%.
Asked about the difference in the two forecasts, Mr Darling said he would be looking again at his growth figures in the pre-Budget report in the autumn.
‘Vigilant’
The governor of the Bank of England warned on Tuesday that inflation would top 4% this year before dropping back as the economy slows.
In order to combat inflationary pressures, the chancellor said workers would have to be realistic in their pay demands.
“We have got to be vigilant in relation to all pay settlements, public and private,” Mr Darling told Radio 4’s Today programme.
“If we get back into that [inflationary] spiral, it will take years to get out of it,” he said.
It could even herald a return to the high level of inflation experienced in the 1970s and 1980s, he said.
The chancellor blamed the rise in inflation on global factors pushing up the price of oil and foodstuffs.
But he said countries needed to work together to tackle the problem.
“You need to make sure you don’t allow inflation to become entrenched here at home and you also need to make sure we work together in relation to oil and food [prices]“, he said.
The chancellor will further examine the state of the economy when he delivers his first Mansion House speech to the City of London later.
Eurozone inflation at record 3.7%
June 17, 2008
Inflation in the eurozone has a climbed to a record level amid higher food and fuel costs, official figures show.
The annual rate of inflation in the 15 state zone hit 3.7% in May, according to the Eurostat statistical office.
The figure is the highest since 1996, when Eurostat started using the current methodology for calculating inflation.
There are concerns that price growth will keep accelerating, and the European Central Bank warned it will raise interest rates to slow inflation.
The rate of inflation was up from 3.3% in April, and compares with a 1.9% figure in May 2007.
Eurostat said that the main driver of inflation last month was an increase in food prices, which were up 6.4%, and transport costs, which were 5.9% higher.
Monday’s figures are for the 15 nations that use the euro.
Across the European Union as a whole, the rate of inflation climbed to 3.9% in May.
Global problem
Central banks around the world have been struggling to keep inflation under control as food and oil prices rise.
This has led to growing pressure to increase interest rates to counteract the rise of inflation.
Earlier this month the ECB decided to hold interest rates for the Euro bloc at 4%, but ECB President Jean-Claude Trichet hinted an increase in interest rates was “possible” at its next meeting.
“We considered - it is not excluded - that after having carefully examined the situation, we could decide to move our rates [by] a small amount in our next meeting in order to secure the solid anchoring of inflation expectations”, said Mr Trichet at the time.
But despite the high inflation in the eurozone, the ECB has been reluctant to increase rates - which have been steady since July 2007 - as there are growing signs that the bloc’s economy is weakening.
In May the NTC Research Institute’s purchasing managers’ index slumped to its lowest level since July 2003, and official EU data showed that retail sales fell in April.
Howard Archer, economist at Global Insight, said: “The May eurozone consumer price data are likely to seal an interest rate hike from 4% to 4.25% at the ECB’s 3 July meeting.”
Meanwhile, the US Federal Reserve has effected a series of aggressive interest rate cuts - from 5.25% to 2% since last September.
However with US inflation rising the next move in rates may be upwards.
The Bank of England has also trimmed UK rates, which are now at 5%.
The combination of ECB holding rates steady and UK and US central banks cutting rates has sent the euro to record highs against the dollar and sterling since the beginning of the year.
This has made eurozone exports more expensive and sparked criticism from some leading exporters, such as plane maker Airbus.
Some analysts have predicted rates will come down in order to boost the eurozone economy.
Source: BBC News
Fuel costs push up US inflation
June 14, 2008
US inflation rose at its fastest pace for six months in May because of sharply higher energy costs.
Consumer prices rose 0.6% last month, government figures showed, the steepest monthly increase since last November.
Petrol costs surged by 5.7% last month, driven by the soaring global cost of oil which recently reached more than $139 a barrel.
Rising inflation is a worry for the Federal Reserve, which has cut rates aggressively to stimulate growth.
Above expectations
May’s figure topped market expectations and represented a jump from April’s 0.2% rate.
On an annual basis, inflation touched 4.2% in May, again above analysts’ expectations.
Gasoline prices rose at their fastest monthly rate this year while food prices rose 0.3%.
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We know oil is flying through the roof. Consumers are forced to eat the price
Lindsey Piegza, FTN Financial
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Excluding both fuel and food costs, so-called core inflation was up 0.2% on a monthly basis and 2.3% compared with a year ago.
The figures increase the prospect that the next move in US interest rates could be up.
The Fed has slashed rates in the past eight months as the economy has slowed dramatically but it will be mindful of evidence of growing inflationary pressures.
But analysts said price inflation was largely confined to energy at this stage.
“It is not as bad as it looks,” Lindsey Piegza, from FTN Financial, said of the numbers.
“We know oil is flying through the roof. Consumers are forced to eat the price. There is nothing they can do.”